An example of broad definition would be: Humans are two-legged mammals. An example of narrow meaning is:
Advocates of 'cliodynamics' say that they can use scientific methods to illuminate the past. But historians are not so sure. It was first introduced in the four short stories — which would later be collected as the novel Foundation. Axioms Psychohistory depends on the idea that, while one cannot foresee the actions of a particular individual, the laws of statistics as applied to large groups of people could predict the general flow of future events.
Asimov used the analogy of a gas: An observer has great difficulty in predicting the motion of a single molecule in a gas, but with the kinetic theory can predict the mass action of the gas to a high level of accuracy. Asimov applied this concept to the population of his fictional Galactic Empirewhich numbered one quintillion.
The character responsible for the science's creation, Hari Seldonestablished two axioms: Ebling Mis added these axioms That there would be no fundamental change in the society That human reactions to stimuli would remain constant.
Golan How to write a good a level history essay introduction in Foundation and Earth added this axiom that humans are the only sentient intelligence in the galaxy.
Limitations The fact that Seldon established a Second Foundation of mental-science adepts to oversee his Seldon Plan might suggest that even Seldon himself had doubts about the ultimate ability of a purely mathematical approach to predicting historical processes, and that he recognized that the development of psychic skills, such as those used by the Mulehad the ability to invalidate the assumptions underlying his models, though he did not and could not predict the appearance of the Mule himself.
The Seldon methodology might therefore only work at a certain level of species-development, and would over time become less useful. Psychohistory has one basic, underlying limitation which Asimov postulated for the first time on the last page of the final book in the Foundation series: In Asimov's Foundation series, humans form the only sentient race that developed in the entire Milky Way Galaxy.
Seldon developed psychohistory to predict the actions of large groups of humans. Even robots technically fall under the umbrella of psychohistory, because humans built them, and they thus represent more or less a human "action", or at least, possess a thought-framework similar enough to that of their human creators that psychohistory can predict their actions.
However, psychohistory cannot predict the actions of a sentient alien race; their psychology may differ so much from that of humans that normal psychohistory cannot understand or predict their actions.
The end of the series offered two possibilities: However, statistically two or more alien races might evolve in the same galaxy, leading them into inevitable conflict.
The fighting in this other galaxy would only end when one race emerged the victor, and after the prolonged conflict with other races, would have developed an aggressive and expansionist mindset.
In contrast, humans had never encountered another sentient species in the Milky Way Galaxy, so they never felt greatly compelled to expand to other galaxies, but instead to fight other humans over control of the Milky Way.
Eventually, such an aggressive alien race would expand from galaxy to galaxy, and try to invade the Milky Way Galaxy. Specifically exemplifying this theory we find Asimov's Solarians: Asimovian psychohistory and similar concepts in other fiction Legend of the Galactic Heroes November — The concept of psychohistory appears in this novel by Yoshiki Tanaka.
Hyperion — In Dan Simmons 's novel, the AI civilization is capable of statistically predicting future events to a very high degree of accuracy. Flynn creates competing groups of psychohistorians. Ghost Rider May — In issue 1, a group of AIs predict that human society and therefore the global network in which the AIs exist will crash in One of them mentions that Asimov conceived the idea of such a mathematical model.
Deep Space Nine — In the episode " Statistical Probabilities ", a think tank uses mathematics to predict the future in a manner likely to be a reference to Asimov. Preserver — In this novel by William Shatnerthe science of psychohistory is used and mentioned by name by scholars at outpost Memory Alpha.
Memory Alpha was shown in the Star Trek: Original Series episode " The Lights of Zetar ", although psychohistory was never mentioned in the episode. Psychohistorical Crisis — Donald Kingsbury 's novel re-imagines the world of Isaac Asimov's Foundation trilogy, set after the establishment of the Second Empire.
Timelines — In the 'Shattered Glass' universe, Megatron uses math to predict the future in a reference to Asimov. Fantastic Four January — In issueMister Fantastic reveals his real reason for supporting the superhero registration act which prompted the Civil War: Mister Fantastic's application of this science indicates to him that billions will die in escalating conflicts unless the act becomes law.
House of Suns — This novel by Alastair Reynolds features a device called the "Universal Actuary", which aims to predict the future of civilisations in a manner very similar to psychohistory. As the limits of slower-than-light travel prevent any interstellar civilisations from lasting very long, one of its most important uses is to determine how much longer a given civilisation will last.
Fallout 4 — In the video game developed by Bethesda Softworksa robot dubbed P. Predictive Analytical Machine uses algorithms to make predictions of the future.
However, her capabilities are limited due to the complexity of human free will and she has to adjust her algorithms constantly, especially when the player character shows up. Outside fiction Polymath Adolphe Quetelet developed in the 19th century what he called "social physics".
Quetelet studied the statistical laws underlying the behaviour of what he called "average man". Some individuals and groups, inspired by Asimov's psychohistory, seriously explore the possibility of a working psychohistory not unlike the one imagined by Asimov—a statistical study of history that could help in the formulation of some "theory of history" and perhaps become a tool of historical prediction.
Complexity theory, an offshoot of chaos mathematics theory, explored by Stuart Kauffman in his books "At Home in the Universe" and "Redefining the Sacred" cover the concept of statistical modeling of sociological evolutions.When it comes to a successful essay, the most crucial step is the planning.
In fact, a properly planned essay will practically write itself. A good essay for this subject analyses, evaluates and interprets.
The historical elements of the subject will require the same set of skills we discussed for History earlier, while the archaeological components of this subject require slightly different skills.
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Unfortunately, a good essay does not just consist of writing all you know about a given topic; at A-level examiners tend to insist on tricky things like answering the question, analysis rather than narrative and including information to support your point of view.
Your entire essay will be a response to this question, and your introduction is the first step toward that end. Your direct answer to the assigned question will be your thesis, and your thesis will likely be included in your introduction, so it is a good idea to use the question as a jumping off point.